DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND IN NIGERIA: Evidence from Country and Sub-Country Application of National Transfer Accounts (NTA) Approach
- Noah Olasehinde
- Olanrewaju Olaniyan
- Adedoyin Soyibo
- Akanni Lawanson
- Rasaki Dauda
- Oyeteju Odufuwa
- Olabanji Awodumi
- Temitope Olalude
- Yusuf Auta
- Basit Baruwa
- Osaretin Adonri
- Andat Dasogot
- ( paper pages. 457 - 480 )
Abstract
Nigeria is
the most populous country in Africa. However, variations exist in the size and
structure of the country’s population across the 36 sub-nationals and the
Federal Capital Territory. These disparities have implications for harnessing
the potential benefits of a large population, as it necessitates the implementation
of context-specific policies. This study profiles demographic dividend at the
country and sub-country levels for Nigeria. It takes case studies of the nation
(Nigeria) and sub-nationals – Lagos and Kaduna states, two of the largest
states by population but distinct in terms of fertility rate. Specifically, the
study applies the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) methodology in estimating
economic lifecycle patterns across Nigeria, Lagos and Kaduna states. Findings
from sub-national estimates demonstrate substantial variations between Lagos
and Kaduna states. Children start earning labour income as early as age 3 in
Kaduna, compared with age 10 in Lagos, suggesting the prevalence of child
labour. An average Lagos State resident is found to earn and spend more than
his or her counterpart in Kaduna State or Nigeria. Although length of lifecycle
surplus is shortest in Lagos, total surplus is substantially higher than Kaduna
or Nigeria. Support ratio is highest in Lagos and the state entered the period
of first demographic dividend in 1978, while this dividend did not begin until
1995 and 2000 for Kaduna and Nigeria respectively. Lagos State also reached the
peak of its dividend earlier and higher than Kaduna State or Nigeria. These
findings agree that demographic transition can be very critical to the creation
of demographic dividend but differences in fertility rates within a country can
lead to substantial differences in the creation of demographic dividend across
states or regions in a country. Policy implications are derived.
Citation
Noah Olasehinde, Olanrewaju Olaniyan, Adedoyin Soyibo, Akanni Lawanson, Rasaki Dauda, Oyeteju Odufuwa, Olabanji Awodumi, Temitope Olalude, Yusuf Auta, Basit Baruwa, Osaretin Adonri, Andat Dasogot.
2024.
"DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND IN NIGERIA: Evidence from Country and Sub-Country Application of National Transfer Accounts (NTA) Approach"
The Nigerian Journal of Economic and Social Studies,
66 (3): 457 - 480.
JEL Classification
D13, D31, I1, I2, J1
