Regional Heterogeneity in Debt-Governance Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Comparative Analysis of East, South and West Africa's Sustainable Development Outcomes

  • David Adebisi Samuel
  • Ayobola Olufolake Charles
  • ( paper pages. 277 - 306 )
The Nigerian Journal of Economic and Social Studies
Vol. 68, No. 2, July 2026
Download Full Text PDF

Abstract

Rising public debt and persistent governance challenges have intensified concerns about sustainable development in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), yet evidence on how debt–governance dynamics differ across regions remains limited. This study examines the individual and interactive effects of public debt and institutional quality on sustainable development in East, West, and Southern Africa over the period 1996–2023. Using a dynamic panel System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) framework and regional interaction terms, the analysis evaluates whether institutional quality conditions the developmental impact of public debt. The results reveal substantial regional heterogeneity. Public debt exerts positive development effects in some specifications, particularly in East Africa, but produces adverse outcomes in Southern Africa. Institutional quality generally enhances sustainable development, although its effectiveness varies across regions. The interaction results show that stronger institutions improve developmental returns to public debt, while weak governance reduces debt effectiveness and increases development vulnerabilities. Gross capital formation consistently promotes sustainable development, whereas population growth exerts a significant negative effect. A panel ARDL error-correction model confirms the existence of a stable long-run relationship among the variables. The study recommends region-specific debt management and governance reforms to strengthen debt productivity and advance sustainable development across SSA.

Citation

David Adebisi Samuel, Ayobola Olufolake Charles. 2026. "Regional Heterogeneity in Debt-Governance Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Comparative Analysis of East, South and West Africa's Sustainable Development Outcomes" The Nigerian Journal of Economic and Social Studies, 68 (2): 277 - 306.

JEL Classification