Child-mortality Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa Pre- and During the MDGS Era
- Pius Amos Atsiya
- ( paper pages. 127 - 151 )
This study examined the role of health-related macroeconomic goals in child mortality decline during the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) era among sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. The MDG programmes effect was estimated using a macro-level time series approach – the interrupted time series analysis (ITSA). The ITSA model, a quasi-experimental design, was fitted to data sourced from the World Bank poverty initiative data catalogue. The results indicate that there was evidence of a treatment effect at the introduction of the MDGs, but no additional decrease in the rate of under-five mortalityafter the intervention. In fact, there is evidence of a rising trend in under-five mortality rate post-intervention for some countries. This raises the concern of a reversal of gains achieved with the introduction of the programmes. For sensitivity analysis, different baseline periods were modelled, different definitions of child mortality and varied lags were used, but all of these suggest evidence of a trend break in child mortality rate at the start year of the intervention. Using qualitative analysis, the mechanisms of the MDGs impacts are explained by exploring trends in preventative and treatment measures alongside cause-specific mortality. Findings from this study indicate that coverage of preventative actions such as immunization, safe water provision, and sanitation are associated with levels of under-five mortality. Seychelles, for instance, had 95% safe water provision coverage over a decade pre-MDGs with 1 under-five death per 1000 live births due to diarrhoea. This study insists that scaling-up of preventative programmes as well as complete overhauling of existing implementation strategies, especially for countries with dismal performances in infectious disease control, is vital for attainment ofthe SDG target on child mortality.
Pius Amos Atsiya.
"Child-mortality Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa Pre- and During the MDGS Era"
The Nigerian Journal of Economic and Social Studies,
63 (2): 127 - 151.
I15, I18, C22